Columbus Blue Jackets at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Damon SeversonGoals1
- Ivan ProvorovAssists1
- Damon SeversonPoints1
Canucks- Pius SuterGoals2
- Quinn HughesAssists2
- Pius SuterPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:55Pius Suter Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (17)2–5
- P310:22Jake DeBrusk Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (25), Brock Boeser (9)2–4
- P32:17Pius Suter Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (15)2–3
- P219:00Kiefer Sherwood Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (7)2–2
- P23:52Brock Boeser Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (24), Vincent Desharnais (2)2–1
- P112:18Damon Severson Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (7), Kirill Marchenko (15)2–0
- P17:10Mathieu Olivier Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (14), Zach Aston-Reese (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:10Mathieu Olivier Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (14), Zach Aston-Reese (5)CBJ 1 – 0 VAN · CBJ 34% → 49% +15CBJ 34% → 49%+15 pts
- P112:18Damon Severson Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (7), Kirill Marchenko (15)CBJ 2 – 0 VAN · CBJ 51% → 67% +16CBJ 51% → 67%+16 pts
- P23:52Brock Boeser Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (24), Vincent Desharnais (2)CBJ 2 – 1 VAN · VAN 27% → 45% +17VAN 27% → 45%+17 pts
- P219:00Kiefer Sherwood Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (7)CBJ 2 – 2 VAN · VAN 36% → 60% +24VAN 36% → 60%+24 pts
- P32:17Pius Suter Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (15)CBJ 2 – 3 VAN · VAN 59% → 82% +22VAN 59% → 82%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 67%
- ML CBJ +190 / VAN -225
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- VAN: Elo 67.5%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- VAN -201
- CBJ +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.8 – 3.7 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +1 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +127 Elo | VAN 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 66.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.224th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | 0.013th of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.7% | Shot share | 49.1%23rd of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 89.2%23rd of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 30th of 323–10 | Road vs home | 3–832nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–11 | 11–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 6–10 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 17–8 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 1–1 VAN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.