Vancouver Canucks at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Jake DeBruskGoals1
- Conor GarlandAssists1
- Jake DeBruskPoints1
Wild- Jake MiddletonGoals1
- Marcus FolignoAssists1
- Frederick GaudreauPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT4:36Kirill Kaprizov Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (13)2–3
- P31:43Jake Middleton Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
- P219:18Jake DeBrusk Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (16), Carson Soucy (3)2–1
- P27:56Frederick Gaudreau Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Foligno (5), Brock Faber (10)1–1
- P18:37Quinn Hughes Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (15), Conor Garland (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:37Quinn Hughes Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (15), Conor Garland (14)VAN 1 – 0 MIN · VAN 43% → 59% +16VAN 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P27:56Frederick Gaudreau Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Foligno (5), Brock Faber (10)VAN 1 – 1 MIN · MIN 36% → 55% +20MIN 36% → 55%+20 pts
- P219:18Jake DeBrusk Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (16), Carson Soucy (3)VAN 2 – 1 MIN · VAN 46% → 70% +24VAN 46% → 70%+24 pts
- P31:43Jake Middleton Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVAN 2 – 2 MIN · MIN 29% → 54% +25MIN 29% → 54%+25 pts
- OT4:36Kirill Kaprizov Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (13)VAN 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 51% → >99% +49MIN 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 57%
- ML VAN +125 / MIN -145
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 55.6%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -133
- VAN +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.5 – 3.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +10 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +39 Elo | MIN 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.212th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.85th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.9% | Shot share | 49.9%15th of 32 |
| 25th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 92.3%1st of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 1st of 3210–2 | Road vs home | 6–49th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–13 | 13–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 13–10 | 11–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 1–2 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.