Nashville Predators at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Fedor SvechkovGoals1
- Roman JosiAssists2
- Roman JosiPoints2
Wild- Jared SpurgeonGoals1
- Jared SpurgeonAssists1
- Jared SpurgeonPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:00Jared Spurgeon Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (23), Joel Eriksson Ek (8)2–3
- P28:24Kirill Kaprizov Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Marco Rossi (12), Jared Spurgeon (7)2–2
- P22:29Ryan O'Reilly Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Steven Stamkos (6), Roman Josi (15)2–1
- P119:39Fedor Svechkov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (8), Roman Josi (14)1–1
- P118:57Declan Chisholm Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:57Declan Chisholm Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (9)NSH 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 54% → 71% +17MIN 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P119:39Fedor Svechkov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (8), Roman Josi (14)NSH 1 – 1 MIN · NSH 29% → 46% +17NSH 29% → 46%+17 pts
- P22:29Ryan O'Reilly Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Steven Stamkos (6), Roman Josi (15)NSH 2 – 1 MIN · NSH 46% → 64% +18NSH 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P28:24Kirill Kaprizov Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Marco Rossi (12), Jared Spurgeon (7)NSH 2 – 2 MIN · MIN 34% → 54% +20MIN 34% → 54%+20 pts
- OT1:00Jared Spurgeon Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (23), Joel Eriksson Ek (8)NSH 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 51% → 93% +41MIN 51% → 93%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 55%
- ML NSH +115 / MIN -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 65.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -124
- NSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.6 – 2.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +10 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +107 Elo | MIN 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 62.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.3 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.8 | Margin | +0.85th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 49.9%16th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 92.3%1st of 32 |
| 29th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 31st of 322–9 | Road vs home | 5–411th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–14 | 13–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–11 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–16 | 11–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 2–2 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.