Washington Capitals at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals2
- Aliaksei ProtasAssists2
- Tom WilsonPoints2
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals1
- Cole CaufieldAssists1
- Cole CaufieldPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:49Dylan Strome Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (8), Connor McMichael (11)4–2
- P311:48Tom Wilson Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (15), Aliaksei Protas (15)3–2
- P37:10Tom Wilson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (14), Matt Roy (6)2–2
- P20:33Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: John Carlson (17), Taylor Raddysh (8)1–2
- P116:00Cole Caufield Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (18)0–2
- P111:09Alex Newhook Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (8), Lane Hutson (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:09Alex Newhook Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (8), Lane Hutson (18)WSH 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 44% → 60% +16MTL 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P116:00Cole Caufield Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (18)WSH 0 – 2 MTL · MTL 61% → 76% +15MTL 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P20:33Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: John Carlson (17), Taylor Raddysh (8)WSH 1 – 2 MTL · WSH 23% → 38% +16WSH 23% → 38%+16 pts
- P37:10Tom Wilson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (14), Matt Roy (6)WSH 2 – 2 MTL · WSH 24% → 53% +29WSH 24% → 53%+29 pts
- P311:48Tom Wilson Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (15), Aliaksei Protas (15)WSH 3 – 2 MTL · WSH 53% → 85% +33WSH 53% → 85%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 57%
- ML WSH -145 / MTL +125
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- WSH: Elo 52.5%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -133
- MTL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 2.5 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +8 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +17 Elo | WSH 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 51.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.0 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 7th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.3 | Margin | −0.829th of 32 |
| 11th of 3250.9% | Shot share | 45.0%31st of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 88.7%30th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 1st of 3210–2 | Road vs home | 7–716th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–8 | 14–12 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 14–3 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders | 15–11 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–2 MTL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.