San Jose Sharks at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Tyler ToffoliGoals1
- Macklin CelebriniAssists1
- Tyler ToffoliPoints1
Capitals- Nic DowdGoals1
- Martin FehervaryAssists1
- Nic DowdPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:39William Eklund Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (19), Macklin Celebrini (7)2–1
- P213:02Nic Dowd Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Martin Fehervary (6), Ivan Miroshnichenko (3)1–1
- P119:00Tyler Toffoli Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:00Tyler Toffoli Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSJ 1 – 0 WSH · SJ 33% → 50% +17SJ 33% → 50%+17 pts
- P213:02Nic Dowd Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Martin Fehervary (6), Ivan Miroshnichenko (3)SJ 1 – 1 WSH · WSH 43% → 64% +21WSH 43% → 64%+21 pts
- OT0:39William Eklund Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (19), Macklin Celebrini (7)SJ 2 – 1 WSH · SJ 44% → 89% +44SJ 44% → 89%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 70%
- ML SJ +225 / WSH -275
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 72.4%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- WSH -238
- SJ +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.6 – 3.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1406 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +6 | SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +168 Elo | WSH 72.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 73.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 72.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 4.21st of 32 |
| 29th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.97th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +1.31st of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.2% | Shot share | 50.9%11th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 90.1%14th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 31st of 323–11 | Road vs home | 8–59th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–9 | 17–7 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | — | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 18–9 | 13–3 |
| Overs–unders | 13–14 | 15–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–1 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.