Nashville Predators at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators
Canadiens- Jake EvansGoals1
- Jake EvansAssists1
- Jake EvansPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:14Joel Armia Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (9), Arber Xhekaj (4)0–3
- P31:14Patrik Laine Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (17), Nick Suzuki (17)0–2
- P17:50Jake Evans Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:50Jake Evans Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: noneNSH 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 46% → 61% +15MTL 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P31:14Patrik Laine Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (17), Nick Suzuki (17)NSH 0 – 2 MTL · MTL 72% → 89% +17MTL 72% → 89%+17 pts
- P319:14Joel Armia Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (9), Arber Xhekaj (4)NSH 0 – 3 MTL · MTL >99% → 100% +0MTL >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 54%
- ML NSH -130 / MTL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- NSH: Elo 45.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NSH -119
- MTL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.4 – 3.1 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +5 | NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +33 Elo | MTL 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.3 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 20th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.831st of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.8 | Margin | −1.031st of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 44.7%31st of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 88.2%31st of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 32nd of 322–11 | Road vs home | 6–719th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–14 | 13–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–11 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders | 8–18 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 1–1 MTL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.