Nashville Predators at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals1
- Cole SmithAssists1
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints1
Maple Leafs- Morgan RiellyAssists1
- Morgan RiellyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:38Mark Jankowski Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Alexandre Carrier (6), Cole Smith (3)2–3
- P35:06William Nylander Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (6), Mitch Marner (27)1–3
- P32:29Auston Matthews Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Mitch Marner (26)1–2
- P30:31Auston Matthews Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (25), Morgan Rielly (11)1–1
- P15:26Jonathan Marchessault Goal (5) Batted, assists: Roman Josi (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:26Jonathan Marchessault Goal (5) Batted, assists: Roman Josi (16)NSH 1 – 0 TOR · NSH 44% → 59% +15NSH 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P30:31Auston Matthews Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (25), Morgan Rielly (11)NSH 1 – 1 TOR · TOR 29% → 54% +24TOR 29% → 54%+24 pts
- P32:29Auston Matthews Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Mitch Marner (26)NSH 1 – 2 TOR · TOR 53% → 78% +24TOR 53% → 78%+24 pts
- P35:06William Nylander Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (6), Mitch Marner (27)NSH 1 – 3 TOR · TOR 79% → 94% +15TOR 79% → 94%+15 pts
- P316:38Mark Jankowski Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Alexandre Carrier (6), Cole Smith (3)NSH 2 – 3 TOR · NSH <1% → 6% +6NSH <1% → 6%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 56%
- ML NSH +120 / TOR -140
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 60.3%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -128
- NSH +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.6 – 2.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −7 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +73 Elo | TOR 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 57.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.3 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.8 | Margin | +0.58th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 50.6%13th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 91.9%3rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 322–8 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 32nd of 322–10 | Road vs home | 11–33rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–14 | 15–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–11 | 10–8 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–17 | 10–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 1–1 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.