Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals1
- Chris TanevAssists1
- John TavaresPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:03
Aliaksei Protas Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Nic Dowd (3), Tom Wilson (11)3–1 - P39:51Connor McMichael Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (14)2–1
- P211:31John Tavares Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Chris Tanev (6)1–1
- P21:06Nic Dowd Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Matt Roy (5)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:06Nic Dowd Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Matt Roy (5)WSH 1 – 0 TOR · WSH 44% → 62% +18WSH 44% → 62%+18 pts
- P211:31John Tavares Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Chris Tanev (6)WSH 1 – 1 TOR · TOR 34% → 55% +21TOR 34% → 55%+21 pts
- P39:51Connor McMichael Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (14)WSH 2 – 1 TOR · WSH 47% → 79% +32WSH 47% → 79%+32 pts
- P319:03Aliaksei Protas Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Nic Dowd (3), Tom Wilson (11)WSH 3 – 1 TOR · WSH >99% → >99% +0WSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 57%
- ML WSH +125 / TOR -145
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 59.0%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -133
- WSH +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 3.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +12 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.31 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +63 Elo | TOR 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 60.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.1 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.2 | Margin | +0.69th of 32 |
| 11th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 50.7%12th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 91.9%3rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 1st of 329–2 | Road vs home | 12–33rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–8 | 15–10 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 10–9 |
| Underdog | 13–3 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 15–10 | 10–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–4 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.