Philadelphia Flyers at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals1
- Matvei MichkovAssists2
- Matvei MichkovPoints2
Blue Jackets- Kent JohnsonGoals1
- Kent JohnsonAssists1
- Kent JohnsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:23Kent Johnson Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Damon Severson (10), James van Riemsdyk (5)5–3
- P311:42Sean Monahan Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Dante Fabbro (4), Kent Johnson (7)5–2
- P31:55Morgan Frost Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (16)5–1
- P219:00Travis Konecny Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (7), Nick Seeler (8)4–1
- P216:56Zach Werenski Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (17)3–1
- P26:11Travis Konecny Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (15), Bobby Brink (9)3–0
- P110:56Owen Tippett Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Drysdale (3), Morgan Frost (8)2–0
- P14:37Noah Cates Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Foerster (4), Cam York (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:37Noah Cates Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Foerster (4), Cam York (2)PHI 1 – 0 CBJ · PHI 53% → 68% +15PHI 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P110:56Owen Tippett Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Drysdale (3), Morgan Frost (8)PHI 2 – 0 CBJ · PHI 68% → 81% +13PHI 68% → 81%+13 pts
- P26:11Travis Konecny Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (15), Bobby Brink (9)PHI 3 – 0 CBJ · PHI 85% → 94% +9PHI 85% → 94%+9 pts
- P216:56Zach Werenski Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (17)PHI 3 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 3% → 11% +8CBJ 3% → 11%+8 pts
- P219:00Travis Konecny Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (7), Nick Seeler (8)PHI 4 – 1 CBJ · PHI 90% → 97% +7PHI 90% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 53%
- ML PHI -125 / CBJ +105
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 46.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -114
- CBJ +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.3 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +2 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +28 Elo | CBJ 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.117th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 52.2%9th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 88.0%32nd of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 18th of 326–7 | Road vs home | 8–48th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–14 | 15–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 13–10 |
| Overs–unders | 15–13 | 18–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–2 CBJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.