Utah Hockey Club at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Kevin StenlundGoals1
- Mikhail SergachevAssists1
- Kevin StenlundPoints1
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals1
- Nick SeelerAssists2
- Nick SeelerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:43Kevin Stenlund Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P215:30Logan Cooley Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Dylan Guenther (13), Clayton Keller (17)3–2
- P213:34Owen Tippett Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Seeler (7), Matvei Michkov (14)2–2
- P29:42Juuso Valimaki Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (11), Jack McBain (4)2–1
- P27:20Joel Farabee Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Seeler (6), Travis Konecny (19)1–1
- P27:01Michael Carcone Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Robert Bortuzzo (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:01Michael Carcone Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Robert Bortuzzo (2)UTAH 1 – 0 PHI · UTAH 49% → 68% +19UTAH 49% → 68%+19 pts
- P27:20Joel Farabee Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Seeler (6), Travis Konecny (19)UTAH 1 – 1 PHI · PHI 32% → 51% +19PHI 32% → 51%+19 pts
- P29:42Juuso Valimaki Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (11), Jack McBain (4)UTAH 2 – 1 PHI · UTAH 49% → 69% +20UTAH 49% → 69%+20 pts
- P213:34Owen Tippett Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Seeler (7), Matvei Michkov (14)UTAH 2 – 2 PHI · PHI 30% → 51% +21PHI 30% → 51%+21 pts
- P215:30Logan Cooley Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Dylan Guenther (13), Clayton Keller (17)UTAH 3 – 2 PHI · UTAH 49% → 71% +22UTAH 49% → 71%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 51%
- ML UTAH -105 / PHI -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 50.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- UTAH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 2.7 – 2.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +15 | +11 | UTAH: Jaxson Stauber: team allows 0.39 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +5 Elo | PHI 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 51.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.524th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.8% | Shot share | 49.6%21st of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 88.7%29th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 17th of 327–8 | Road vs home | 6–822nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–10 | 14–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 12–5 | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders | 11–15 | 14–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.