Utah Hockey Club at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Michael KesselringGoals1
- Alexander KerfootAssists2
- Michael KesselringPoints2
Sabres- Tyson KozakGoals1
- Beck MalenstynAssists1
- Tyson KozakPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:40Jiri Kulich Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (12), Owen Power (13)5–2
- P312:07Kevin Stenlund Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Olli Maatta (3), Alexander Kerfoot (6)5–1
- P32:11Jack McBain Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (15), Dylan Guenther (12)4–1
- P219:08Nick Schmaltz Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Kesselring (10), Clayton Keller (16)3–1
- P23:42Mikhail Sergachev Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Kerfoot (5), Michael Carcone (3)2–1
- P23:18Michael Kesselring Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (7)1–1
- P110:14Tyson Kozak Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Beck Malenstyn (3), Dennis Gilbert (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:14Tyson Kozak Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Beck Malenstyn (3), Dennis Gilbert (1)UTAH 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 52% → 67% +15BUF 52% → 67%+15 pts
- P23:18Michael Kesselring Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (7)UTAH 1 – 1 BUF · UTAH 31% → 48% +18UTAH 31% → 48%+18 pts
- P23:42Mikhail Sergachev Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Kerfoot (5), Michael Carcone (3)UTAH 2 – 1 BUF · UTAH 48% → 67% +18UTAH 48% → 67%+18 pts
- P219:08Nick Schmaltz Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Kesselring (10), Clayton Keller (16)UTAH 3 – 1 BUF · UTAH 72% → 89% +16UTAH 72% → 89%+16 pts
- P32:11Jack McBain Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (15), Dylan Guenther (12)UTAH 4 – 1 BUF · UTAH 90% → 98% +7UTAH 90% → 98%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 52%
- ML UTAH +100 / BUF -120
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- BUF: Elo 54.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BUF -109
- UTAH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 3.2 – 3.3 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +5 | UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +33 Elo | BUF 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.120th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.6% | Shot share | 49.7%20th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.9%19th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 19th of 326–8 | Road vs home | 6–823rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–10 | 14–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 11–5 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–15 | 13–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.