Dallas Stars at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Jamie BennGoals1
- Matt DucheneAssists1
- Jamie BennPoints1
Utah HC- Nick SchmaltzGoals1
- Nick BjugstadAssists1
- Nick SchmaltzPoints1
Scoring summary
- P36:57Nick Schmaltz Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (7), Nick Bjugstad (4)2–1
- P219:17Jamie Benn Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Steel (8)2–0
- P27:07Evgenii Dadonov Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (16), Miro Heiskanen (9)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:07Evgenii Dadonov Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (16), Miro Heiskanen (9)DAL 1 – 0 UTAH · DAL 52% → 71% +19DAL 52% → 71%+19 pts
- P219:17Jamie Benn Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Steel (8)DAL 2 – 0 UTAH · DAL 75% → 90% +15DAL 75% → 90%+15 pts
- P36:57Nick Schmaltz Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (7), Nick Bjugstad (4)DAL 2 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 5% → 21% +15UTAH 5% → 21%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 53%
- ML DAL -125 / UTAH +105
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- DAL: Elo 46.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DAL -114
- UTAH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.3 – 3.2 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −15 | +8 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.38 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +25 Elo | UTAH 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 51.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 4th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.9 | Margin | −0.217th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.6% | Shot share | 47.9%26th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 89.9%18th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Road vs home | 4–626th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–11 | 14–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–8 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–13 | 10–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.