Philadelphia Flyers at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Matvei MichkovGoals2
- Sean CouturierAssists1
- Matvei MichkovPoints2
Bruins- Pavel ZachaGoals1
- Mark KastelicAssists1
- Pavel ZachaPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:49Pavel Zacha Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (18)3–4
- P314:38Brad Marchand Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Brazeau (8)3–3
- P35:18Trent Frederic Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (2), Mark Kastelic (7)3–2
- P215:29Cam York Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (12), Travis Konecny (18)3–1
- P25:26Trent Frederic Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Mason Lohrei (11), Morgan Geekie (5)2–1
- P118:24Matvei Michkov Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (11)2–0
- P17:24Matvei Michkov Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (9), Emil Andrae (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:26Trent Frederic Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Mason Lohrei (11), Morgan Geekie (5)PHI 2 – 1 BOS · BOS 21% → 38% +16BOS 21% → 38%+16 pts
- P215:29Cam York Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (12), Travis Konecny (18)PHI 3 – 1 BOS · PHI 67% → 84% +18PHI 67% → 84%+18 pts
- P35:18Trent Frederic Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (2), Mark Kastelic (7)PHI 3 – 2 BOS · BOS 9% → 27% +18BOS 9% → 27%+18 pts
- P314:38Brad Marchand Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Brazeau (8)PHI 3 – 3 BOS · BOS 12% → 53% +40BOS 12% → 53%+40 pts
- OT2:49Pavel Zacha Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (18)PHI 3 – 4 BOS · BOS 52% → 97% +46BOS 52% → 97%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 59%
- ML PHI +135 / BOS -155
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 59.3%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- BOS -143
- PHI +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.5 – 3.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | +4 | PHI: Aleksei Kolosov: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +66 Elo | BOS 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 61.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.529th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.523rd of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 49.9%18th of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 89.8%21st of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 12th of 326–6 | Road vs home | 8–815th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–13 | 8–20 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 5–15 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–13 | 12–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–3 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.