Florida Panthers at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Evan RodriguesGoals1
- Evan RodriguesAssists1
- Carter VerhaeghePoints2
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals2
- Matvei MichkovAssists3
- Matvei MichkovPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:49Matthew Tkachuk Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (18), Dmitry Kulikov (4)7–5
- P318:01Sam Reinhart Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (14), Matthew Tkachuk (20)6–5
- P314:43Gustav Forsling Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (12), Evan Rodrigues (8)5–5
- P35:39Garnet Hathaway Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (7), Rasmus Ristolainen (7)4–5
- P218:04Owen Tippett Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Matvei Michkov (13)4–4
- P217:41Owen Tippett Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (12)4–3
- P213:35Carter Verhaeghe Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (19), Aleksander Barkov (20)4–2
- P29:31Nick Seeler Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–2
- P27:13Tyson Foerster Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Joel Farabee (6), Matvei Michkov (11)3–1
- P23:00Aleksander Barkov Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Sam Reinhart (17), Matthew Tkachuk (18)3–0
- P16:57Niko Mikkola Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (17), Jesper Boqvist (5)2–0
- P12:36Evan Rodrigues Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P217:41Owen Tippett Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (12)FLA 4 – 3 PHI · PHI 8% → 21% +13PHI 8% → 21%+13 pts
- P218:04Owen Tippett Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Matvei Michkov (13)FLA 4 – 4 PHI · PHI 21% → 42% +21PHI 21% → 42%+21 pts
- P35:39Garnet Hathaway Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (7), Rasmus Ristolainen (7)FLA 4 – 5 PHI · PHI 44% → 72% +28PHI 44% → 72%+28 pts
- P314:43Gustav Forsling Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (12), Evan Rodrigues (8)FLA 5 – 5 PHI · FLA 13% → 54% +41FLA 13% → 54%+41 pts
- P318:01Sam Reinhart Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (14), Matthew Tkachuk (20)FLA 6 – 5 PHI · FLA 52% → 98% +46FLA 52% → 98%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 63%
- ML FLA -190 / PHI +155
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- FLA: Elo 56.2%, market 62.6%
- Fair odds
- FLA -167
- PHI +167 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.6 – 2.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | −5 | FLA: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PHI: Ivan Fedotov: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +44 Elo | FLA 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 62.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.7 | Goals scored | 2.918th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.422nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.6% | Shot share | 49.5%20th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 89.2%25th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 9th of 326–5 | Road vs home | 6–719th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–13 | 13–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 17–9 | 12–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 2–2 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.