Florida Panthers at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Jesper BoqvistAssists2
- Jesper BoqvistPoints2
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinGoals1
- Blake LizotteAssists2
- Evgeni MalkinPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:31Bryan Rust Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (18)4–5
- P311:27Matthew Tkachuk Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Aaron Ekblad (13)4–4
- P38:58Adam Boqvist Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (16), Jesper Boqvist (4)3–4
- P36:55Sam Bennett Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Boqvist (3), Matthew Tkachuk (15)2–4
- P33:45Marcus Pettersson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (18), Rickard Rakell (6)1–4
- P26:54Kris Letang Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (11), Blake Lizotte (3)1–3
- P117:24Matthew Tkachuk Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (19), Dmitry Kulikov (3)1–2
- P110:32Evgeni Malkin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Tomasino (2), Drew O'Connor (6)0–2
- P19:20Owen Pickering Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Lizotte (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:24Matthew Tkachuk Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (19), Dmitry Kulikov (3)FLA 1 – 2 PIT · FLA 27% → 43% +16FLA 27% → 43%+16 pts
- P26:54Kris Letang Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (11), Blake Lizotte (3)FLA 1 – 3 PIT · PIT 61% → 78% +17PIT 61% → 78%+17 pts
- P38:58Adam Boqvist Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (16), Jesper Boqvist (4)FLA 3 – 4 PIT · FLA 6% → 23% +18FLA 6% → 23%+18 pts
- P311:27Matthew Tkachuk Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Aaron Ekblad (13)FLA 4 – 4 PIT · FLA 20% → 54% +35FLA 20% → 54%+35 pts
- OT1:31Bryan Rust Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (18)FLA 4 – 5 PIT · PIT 47% → 93% +45PIT 47% → 93%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 61%
- ML FLA -175 / PIT +150
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- FLA: Elo 56.5%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- FLA -159
- PIT +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.6 – 2.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | 0 | FLA: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +45 Elo | FLA 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.7 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.831st of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −1.132nd of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.8% | Shot share | 48.6%25th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 88.9%28th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Road vs home | 6–821st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–12 | 11–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–11 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders | 16–9 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 3–0 PIT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.