Los Angeles Kings at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Jordan SpenceGoals1
- Phillip DanaultAssists1
- Jordan SpencePoints1
Devils- Ondrej PalatGoals1
- Ondrej PalatAssists1
- Ondrej PalatPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:17Brett Pesce Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (26)1–3
- P312:58Jack Hughes Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (6), Brenden Dillon (7)1–2
- P218:56Ondrej Palat Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Jack Hughes (25), Jesper Bratt (26)1–1
- P216:41Jordan Spence Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (10), Phillip Danault (12)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P216:41Jordan Spence Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (10), Phillip Danault (12)LA 1 – 0 NJ · LA 44% → 67% +23LA 44% → 67%+23 pts
- P218:56Ondrej Palat Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Jack Hughes (25), Jesper Bratt (26)LA 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 32% → 55% +24NJ 32% → 55%+24 pts
- P312:58Jack Hughes Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (6), Brenden Dillon (7)LA 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 53% → 87% +34NJ 53% → 87%+34 pts
- P317:17Brett Pesce Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (26)LA 1 – 3 NJ · NJ 96% → >99% +4NJ 96% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 59%
- ML LA +135 / NJ -160
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- NJ: Elo 52.4%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- NJ -145
- LA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.5 – 3.0 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | +10 | LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +16 Elo | NJ 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 57.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.67th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3253.8% | Shot share | 53.4%4th of 32 |
| 18th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.4%11th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 16th of 327–8 | Road vs home | 6–923rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–13 | 14–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–18 | 12–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 2–0 NJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.