Minnesota Wild at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Yakov TreninGoals1
- Zach BogosianAssists1
- Yakov TreninPoints1
Kings- Trevor MooreGoals2
- Anze KopitarAssists1
- Trevor MoorePoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:55Trevor Moore Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–4
- P318:47Yakov Trenin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jon Merrill (2), Zach Bogosian (3)1–3
- P318:06Trevor Moore Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (13)0–3
- P28:33Alex Laferriere Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (5), Kevin Fiala (8)0–2
- P119:17Adrian Kempe Goal (13) Deflected, assists: Anze Kopitar (23), Mikey Anderson (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:17Adrian Kempe Goal (13) Deflected, assists: Anze Kopitar (23), Mikey Anderson (5)MIN 0 – 1 LA · LA 59% → 75% +16LA 59% → 75%+16 pts
- P28:33Alex Laferriere Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (5), Kevin Fiala (8)MIN 0 – 2 LA · LA 76% → 89% +13LA 76% → 89%+13 pts
- P318:06Trevor Moore Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (13)MIN 0 – 3 LA · LA >99% → >99% +0LA >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P318:47Yakov Trenin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jon Merrill (2), Zach Bogosian (3)MIN 1 – 3 LA · MIN <1% → <1% +0MIN <1% → <1%+0 pts
- P318:55Trevor Moore Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMIN 1 – 4 LA · LA >99% → >99% +0LA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- LA 61%
- ML MIN +145 / LA -175
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- LA: Elo 57.1%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- LA -156
- MIN +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.4 – 3.1 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −15 | −20 | MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.38 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.49 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +49 Elo | LA 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 60.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.015th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.9 | Margin | +0.310th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 53.3%3rd of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.5% | Save percentage | 89.7%21st of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3211–4 | Road vs home | 9–35th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–12 | 13–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–11 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–14 | 10–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–3 LA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.