Dallas Stars at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Mason MarchmentGoals1
- Jason RobertsonAssists1
- Mason MarchmentPoints1
Kings- Warren FoegeleGoals1
- Warren FoegeleAssists1
- Warren FoegelePoints2
Scoring summary
- P32:22Warren Foegele Goal (7) Wrap-around, assists: Tanner Jeannot (2)2–3
- P215:38Joel Edmundson Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Kyle Burroughs (2), Anze Kopitar (22)2–2
- P24:40Tanner Jeannot Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (6)2–1
- P113:40Mason Marchment Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (12)2–0
- P12:34Wyatt Johnston Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (10), Jamie Benn (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:34Wyatt Johnston Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (10), Jamie Benn (9)DAL 1 – 0 LA · DAL 51% → 66% +14DAL 51% → 66%+14 pts
- P113:40Mason Marchment Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (12)DAL 2 – 0 LA · DAL 67% → 80% +13DAL 67% → 80%+13 pts
- P24:40Tanner Jeannot Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (6)DAL 2 – 1 LA · LA 17% → 31% +14LA 17% → 31%+14 pts
- P215:38Joel Edmundson Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Kyle Burroughs (2), Anze Kopitar (22)DAL 2 – 2 LA · LA 28% → 49% +22LA 28% → 49%+22 pts
- P32:22Warren Foegele Goal (7) Wrap-around, assists: Tanner Jeannot (2)DAL 2 – 3 LA · LA 49% → 74% +25LA 49% → 74%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 51%
- ML DAL -115 / LA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- DAL: Elo 50.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- DAL -104
- LA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.8 – 2.7 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +10 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +3 Elo | DAL 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 52.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.9 | Margin | +0.311th of 32 |
| 9th of 3252.0% | Shot share | 53.9%3rd of 32 |
| 6th of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 89.5%22nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–5 | Road vs home | 8–37th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–12 | 12–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–9 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 10–14 | 10–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–0 LA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.