Minnesota Wild at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Marco RossiGoals2
- Kirill KaprizovAssists2
- Marco RossiPoints3
Ducks- Brock McGinnGoals1
- Brett LeasonAssists1
- Brock McGinnPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:43Yakov Trenin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–1
- P316:37Brock McGinn Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Cam Fowler (3), Brett Leason (7)4–1
- P31:21Kirill Kaprizov Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Foligno (6), Matt Boldy (15)4–0
- P210:51Matt Boldy Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (14), Kirill Kaprizov (25)3–0
- P28:03Marco Rossi Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Matt Boldy (14), Brock Faber (11)2–0
- P24:22Marco Rossi Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (24), Jared Spurgeon (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:22Marco Rossi Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (24), Jared Spurgeon (8)MIN 1 – 0 ANA · MIN 61% → 77% +17MIN 61% → 77%+17 pts
- P28:03Marco Rossi Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Matt Boldy (14), Brock Faber (11)MIN 2 – 0 ANA · MIN 77% → 90% +12MIN 77% → 90%+12 pts
- P210:51Matt Boldy Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (14), Kirill Kaprizov (25)MIN 3 – 0 ANA · MIN 90% → 97% +6MIN 90% → 97%+6 pts
- P31:21Kirill Kaprizov Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Foligno (6), Matt Boldy (15)MIN 4 – 0 ANA · MIN 98% → >99% +1MIN 98% → >99%+1 pts
- P316:37Brock McGinn Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Cam Fowler (3), Brett Leason (7)MIN 4 – 1 ANA · ANA <1% → <1% +0ANA <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 64%
- ML MIN -195 / ANA +165
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 59.9%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -175
- ANA +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.1 – 2.4 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −5 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +70 Elo | MIN 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 62.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.528th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.421st of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 45.2%30th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.4% | Save percentage | 91.5%5th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3210–4 | Road vs home | 5–930th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–12 | 17–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 8–11 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 14–6 |
| Overs–unders | 11–14 | 7–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–1 ANA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.