Vegas Golden Knights at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- William KarlssonGoals1
- Tomas HertlAssists2
- Tomas HertlPoints2
Ducks- Jackson LaCombeGoals1
- Mason McTavishAssists1
- Jackson LaCombePoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:16Shea Theodore Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (30), Tomas Hertl (12)4–1
- P33:05Alexander Holtz Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Tanner Pearson (6), Tomas Hertl (11)3–1
- P218:01Jackson LaCombe Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (8), Mason McTavish (8)2–1
- P26:38Shea Theodore Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (2), Jack Eichel (29)2–0
- P116:26William Karlsson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (1), Nicolas Hague (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:26William Karlsson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (1), Nicolas Hague (2)VGK 1 – 0 ANA · VGK 56% → 72% +16VGK 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P26:38Shea Theodore Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (2), Jack Eichel (29)VGK 2 – 0 ANA · VGK 73% → 87% +13VGK 73% → 87%+13 pts
- P218:01Jackson LaCombe Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (8), Mason McTavish (8)VGK 2 – 1 ANA · ANA 9% → 24% +14ANA 9% → 24%+14 pts
- P33:05Alexander Holtz Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Tanner Pearson (6), Tomas Hertl (11)VGK 3 – 1 ANA · VGK 78% → 93% +15VGK 78% → 93%+15 pts
- P319:16Shea Theodore Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (30), Tomas Hertl (12)VGK 4 – 1 ANA · VGK >99% → 100% +0VGK >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 57%
- ML VGK -145 / ANA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- VGK: Elo 52.6%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- VGK -133
- ANA +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.5 – 3.0 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VGK on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −5 | VGK: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +18 Elo | VGK 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 57.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.626th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 10th of 3250.9% | Shot share | 45.5%30th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 91.5%5th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 17th of 326–7 | Road vs home | 5–826th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–12 | 17–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 10–0 |
| Favorite | 8–11 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 14–5 |
| Overs–unders | 16–10 | 7–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 3–3 ANA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.