Los Angeles Kings at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Kevin FialaGoals1
- Anze KopitarAssists1
- Kevin FialaPoints1
Islanders- Anders LeeGoals1
- Kyle PalmieriAssists1
- Anders LeePoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:46Mikey Anderson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (14)3–1
- P29:47Anders Lee Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (12), Brock Nelson (8)2–1
- P23:09Kevin Fiala Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Edmundson (5), Alex Turcotte (7)2–0
- P113:51Adrian Kempe Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (24), Trevor Moore (12)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:51Adrian Kempe Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (24), Trevor Moore (12)LA 1 – 0 NYI · LA 54% → 70% +16LA 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P23:09Kevin Fiala Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Edmundson (5), Alex Turcotte (7)LA 2 – 0 NYI · LA 71% → 85% +14LA 71% → 85%+14 pts
- P29:47Anders Lee Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (12), Brock Nelson (8)LA 2 – 1 NYI · NYI 13% → 28% +14NYI 13% → 28%+14 pts
- P319:46Mikey Anderson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (14)LA 3 – 1 NYI · LA >99% → 100% +0LA >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- LA 54%
- ML LA -130 / NYI +110
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- LA: Elo 49.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- LA -119
- NYI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.9 – 2.6 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −15 | +1 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.38 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +3 Elo | NYI 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 51.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.725th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 3rd of 3253.6% | Shot share | 49.8%15th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 90.5%9th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 21st of 326–8 | Road vs home | 5–825th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–13 | 13–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–9 | 2–13 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 11–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–17 | 17–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 1–1 NYI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.