New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Kyle PalmieriGoals1
- Noah DobsonAssists2
- Kyle PalmieriPoints2
Senators- Adam GaudetteGoals1
- Tim StutzleAssists2
- Tim StutzlePoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:09Bo Horvat Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P313:46Kyle Palmieri Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Anders Lee (11), Noah Dobson (13)3–2
- P20:37Josh Norris Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (19), Tim Stützle (24)2–2
- P114:48Kyle MacLean Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Dennis Cholowski (5), Pierre Engvall (3)2–1
- P112:27Anders Lee Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (12), Kyle Palmieri (11)1–1
- P15:37Adam Gaudette Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Gregor (2), Tim Stützle (23)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:37Adam Gaudette Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Gregor (2), Tim Stützle (23)NYI 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 55% → 69% +14OTT 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P112:27Anders Lee Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (12), Kyle Palmieri (11)NYI 1 – 1 OTT · NYI 30% → 45% +15NYI 30% → 45%+15 pts
- P114:48Kyle MacLean Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Dennis Cholowski (5), Pierre Engvall (3)NYI 2 – 1 OTT · NYI 45% → 62% +17NYI 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P20:37Josh Norris Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (19), Tim Stützle (24)NYI 2 – 2 OTT · OTT 37% → 54% +18OTT 37% → 54%+18 pts
- P313:46Kyle Palmieri Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Anders Lee (11), Noah Dobson (13)NYI 3 – 2 OTT · NYI 48% → 86% +38NYI 48% → 86%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 55%
- ML NYI +115 / OTT -135
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- OTT: Elo 55.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- OTT -124
- NYI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.6 – 2.9 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | OTT and NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −11 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +38 Elo | OTT 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 59.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 52.7%7th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 89.4%24th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 24th of 325–10 | Road vs home | 8–611th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–16 | 10–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 2–13 | 3–12 |
| Underdog | 10–3 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 16–12 | 12–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 3–1 OTT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.