Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Andrei SvechnikovGoals2
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists3
- Shayne GostisbeherePoints3
Islanders- Jean-Gabriel PageauGoals1
- Jean-Gabriel PageauAssists2
- Jean-Gabriel PageauPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:11Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (19), Martin Necas (28)3–4
- P218:55Bo Horvat Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (7)2–4
- P216:16Maxim Tsyplakov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (6), Bo Horvat (14)2–3
- P210:06Oliver Wahlstrom Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
- P29:23Andrei Svechnikov Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (10), Shayne Gostisbehere (18)2–1
- P26:05Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (11), Maxim Tsyplakov (11)1–1
- P115:43Andrei Svechnikov Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (22), Shayne Gostisbehere (17)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:05Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (11), Maxim Tsyplakov (11)CAR 1 – 1 NYI · NYI 23% → 40% +17NYI 23% → 40%+17 pts
- P29:23Andrei Svechnikov Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (10), Shayne Gostisbehere (18)CAR 2 – 1 NYI · CAR 60% → 78% +18CAR 60% → 78%+18 pts
- P210:06Oliver Wahlstrom Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCAR 2 – 2 NYI · NYI 22% → 40% +18NYI 22% → 40%+18 pts
- P216:16Maxim Tsyplakov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (6), Bo Horvat (14)CAR 2 – 3 NYI · NYI 41% → 64% +23NYI 41% → 64%+23 pts
- P218:55Bo Horvat Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (7)CAR 2 – 4 NYI · NYI 66% → 85% +19NYI 66% → 85%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 64%
- ML CAR -195 / NYI +165
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- CAR: Elo 60.3%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- CAR -175
- NYI +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.1 – 2.4 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | 0 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +73 Elo | CAR 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 60.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.8 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.016th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.525th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.2% | Shot share | 50.6%12th of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 90.4%12th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 9th of 327–6 | Road vs home | 4–829th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–11 | 11–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–10 | 2–13 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–15 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 6–3 NYI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.
- Apr 30NYI 3 @ CAR 6PlayoffsPicked CAR 57%Hit
- Apr 27CAR 2 @ NYI 3PlayoffsPicked NYI 52%Hit
- Apr 25CAR 3 @ NYI 2PlayoffsPicked NYI 52%Miss
- Apr 22NYI 3 @ CAR 5PlayoffsPicked CAR 57%Hit
- Apr 20NYI 1 @ CAR 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 57%Hit
- Mar 19CAR 4 @ NYI 1Picked NYI 53%Miss
- Dec 23NYI 5 @ CAR 4Picked CAR 56%Miss
- Nov 30NYI 5 @ CAR 4Picked CAR 56%Miss