Nashville Predators at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Fedor SvechkovGoals1
- Zachary L'HeureuxAssists1
- Fedor SvechkovPoints1
Senators- Claude GirouxGoals1
- Tim StutzleAssists2
- Tim StutzlePoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:03Fedor Svechkov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Jankowski (4), Zachary L'Heureux (4)1–3
- P312:37Nick Cousins Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (4)0–3
- P216:52Claude Giroux Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (22)0–2
- P25:07Jacob Bernard-Docker Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (21), Adam Gaudette (2)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:07Jacob Bernard-Docker Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (21), Adam Gaudette (2)NSH 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 52% → 71% +18OTT 52% → 71%+18 pts
- P216:52Claude Giroux Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (22)NSH 0 – 2 OTT · OTT 74% → 89% +15OTT 74% → 89%+15 pts
- P312:37Nick Cousins Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (4)NSH 0 – 3 OTT · OTT 98% → >99% +2OTT 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P318:03Fedor Svechkov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Jankowski (4), Zachary L'Heureux (4)NSH 1 – 3 OTT · NSH <1% → <1% +0NSH <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 53%
- ML NSH +105 / OTT -125
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- OTT: Elo 55.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- OTT -114
- NSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.7 – 2.8 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +4 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +38 Elo | OTT 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.2 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.225th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.9 | Margin | −0.217th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3249.5% | Shot share | 53.0%5th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 89.0%26th of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 32nd of 322–12 | Road vs home | 7–613th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–15 | 9–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 0–10 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 2–12 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–19 | 12–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 1–1 OTT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.