Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Pontus HolmbergGoals1
- Chris TanevAssists1
- Pontus HolmbergPoints1
Devils- Ondrej PalatGoals1
- Ondrej PalatPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:51Auston Matthews Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P310:42Pontus Holmberg Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Dewar (1), Chris Tanev (7)1–1
- P27:16Ondrej Palat Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (25)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:16Ondrej Palat Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (25)TOR 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 54% → 72% +18NJ 54% → 72%+18 pts
- P310:42Pontus Holmberg Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Dewar (1), Chris Tanev (7)TOR 1 – 1 NJ · TOR 16% → 48% +32TOR 16% → 48%+32 pts
- OT2:51Auston Matthews Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTOR 2 – 1 NJ · TOR 49% → 97% +48TOR 49% → 97%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 55%
- ML TOR +115 / NJ -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- NJ: Elo 53.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NJ -124
- TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.1 – 3.4 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | +10 | TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +22 Elo | NJ 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 57.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.77th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 52.8%6th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.8% | Save percentage | 90.4%12th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 24th of 324–7 | Road vs home | 6–822nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–12 | 14–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–11 | 11–15 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 11–16 | 12–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–2 NJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.