Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Oliver Ekman-LarssonAssists1
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonPoints1
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals1
- Bryan RustAssists1
- Bryan RustPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:34Kris Letang Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Pettersson (11)2–5
- P319:20Blake Lizotte Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–4
- P35:34Michael Bunting Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (6), Erik Karlsson (16)2–3
- P22:32William Nylander Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (28), Auston Matthews (10)2–2
- P114:15Bryan Rust Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (19), Rickard Rakell (7)1–2
- P16:35Mitch Marner Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (9), Auston Matthews (9)1–1
- P14:39Rickard Rakell Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (12), Kevin Hayes (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:39Rickard Rakell Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (12), Kevin Hayes (3)TOR 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 40% → 55% +15PIT 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P16:35Mitch Marner Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (9), Auston Matthews (9)TOR 1 – 1 PIT · TOR 45% → 60% +15TOR 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P114:15Bryan Rust Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (19), Rickard Rakell (7)TOR 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 41% → 57% +17PIT 41% → 57%+17 pts
- P22:32William Nylander Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (28), Auston Matthews (10)TOR 2 – 2 PIT · TOR 40% → 58% +18TOR 40% → 58%+18 pts
- P35:34Michael Bunting Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (6), Erik Karlsson (16)TOR 2 – 3 PIT · PIT 45% → 73% +28PIT 45% → 73%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 61%
- ML TOR -170 / PIT +145
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 51.7%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- TOR -154
- PIT +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.6 – 2.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | PIT and TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −1 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +12 Elo | TOR 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 57.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.822nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.932nd of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −1.032nd of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 47.7%26th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.9% | Save percentage | 88.9%27th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Road vs home | 7–819th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–11 | 12–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–10 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 10–11 |
| Overs–unders | 10–16 | 15–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–1 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.