Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Blake LizotteGoals1
- Blake LizottePoints1
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals2
- Alexis LafreniereAssists2
- Artemi PanarinPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:22Vincent Trocheck Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (11), Artemi Panarin (17)2–4
- P39:53Reilly Smith Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (14), Chris Kreider (1)2–3
- P38:29Philip Tomasino Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (6), Marcus Pettersson (10)2–2
- P219:58Artemi Panarin Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (8), Braden Schneider (7)1–2
- P27:28Artemi Panarin Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (10), Vincent Trocheck (7)1–1
- P26:19Blake Lizotte Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Glass (5), Erik Karlsson (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:19Blake Lizotte Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Glass (5), Erik Karlsson (15)PIT 1 – 0 NYR · PIT 39% → 58% +19PIT 39% → 58%+19 pts
- P27:28Artemi Panarin Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (10), Vincent Trocheck (7)PIT 1 – 1 NYR · NYR 42% → 61% +20NYR 42% → 61%+20 pts
- P219:58Artemi Panarin Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (8), Braden Schneider (7)PIT 1 – 2 NYR · NYR 59% → 80% +22NYR 59% → 80%+22 pts
- P38:29Philip Tomasino Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (6), Marcus Pettersson (10)PIT 2 – 2 NYR · PIT 16% → 43% +27PIT 16% → 43%+27 pts
- P39:53Reilly Smith Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (14), Chris Kreider (1)PIT 2 – 3 NYR · NYR 56% → 85% +29NYR 56% → 85%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 65%
- ML PIT +175 / NYR -210
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- NYR: Elo 61.9%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- NYR -186
- PIT +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.8 – 3.7 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −8 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +84 Elo | NYR 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 64.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.9 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.0 | Margin | +0.312th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 48.1%25th of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 91.6%4th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 24th of 324–8 | Road vs home | 6–614th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–15 | 9–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 7–13 |
| Underdog | 10–10 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 15–12 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–3 NYR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.