Anaheim Ducks at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Alex KillornGoals2
- Robby FabbriAssists2
- Alex KillornPoints3
Blue Jackets- James van RiemsdykGoals1
- Kevin LabancAssists1
- James van RiemsdykPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:43Alex Killorn Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Robby Fabbri (2)4–3
- P317:14Jackson LaCombe Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (16), Alex Killorn (8)3–3
- P311:25James van Riemsdyk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Damon Severson (11), Kevin Labanc (10)2–3
- P213:56Alex Killorn Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (10), Troy Terry (15)2–2
- P117:43Cole Sillinger Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Zach Aston-Reese (6), Mathieu Olivier (4)1–2
- P117:09Kirill Marchenko Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (9), Zach Werenski (21)1–1
- P116:33Mason McTavish Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Robby Fabbri (1), Jackson LaCombe (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:09Kirill Marchenko Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (9), Zach Werenski (21)ANA 1 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 43% → 60% +17CBJ 43% → 60%+17 pts
- P213:56Alex Killorn Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (10), Troy Terry (15)ANA 2 – 2 CBJ · ANA 22% → 42% +19ANA 22% → 42%+19 pts
- P311:25James van Riemsdyk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Damon Severson (11), Kevin Labanc (10)ANA 2 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 55% → 86% +31CBJ 55% → 86%+31 pts
- P317:14Jackson LaCombe Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (16), Alex Killorn (8)ANA 3 – 3 CBJ · ANA 4% → 47% +43ANA 4% → 47%+43 pts
- OT1:43Alex Killorn Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Robby Fabbri (2)ANA 4 – 3 CBJ · ANA 47% → 93% +46ANA 47% → 93%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 62%
- ML ANA +155 / CBJ -185
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- CBJ: Elo 60.9%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -166
- ANA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.6 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1423 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | −2 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +77 Elo | CBJ 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 61.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.4 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.218th of 32 |
| 30th of 3245.8% | Shot share | 51.7%9th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 88.1%32nd of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 23rd of 325–8 | Road vs home | 8–610th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–9 | 16–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 16–8 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders | 8–20 | 19–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 2–1 CBJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.