Anaheim Ducks at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Troy TerryGoals2
- Jansen HarkinsAssists1
- Troy TerryPoints2
Canadiens- Kirby DachGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists1
- Kirby DachPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Cole Caufield Goal Snap Shot0–2
- SO0:00Patrik Laine Goal Snap Shot0–2
- P24:36Kirby Dach Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (13), Patrik Laine (1)2–2
- P24:25Troy Terry Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Alex Killorn (7), Frank Vatrano (7)2–1
- P110:49Troy Terry Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Cam Fowler (4), Jansen Harkins (2)1–1
- P12:36Patrik Laine Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (19), Lane Hutson (19)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:36Patrik Laine Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (19), Lane Hutson (19)ANA 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 59% → 72% +14MTL 59% → 72%+14 pts
- P110:49Troy Terry Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Cam Fowler (4), Jansen Harkins (2)ANA 1 – 1 MTL · ANA 27% → 42% +15ANA 27% → 42%+15 pts
- P24:25Troy Terry Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Alex Killorn (7), Frank Vatrano (7)ANA 2 – 1 MTL · ANA 43% → 62% +19ANA 43% → 62%+19 pts
- P24:36Kirby Dach Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (13), Patrik Laine (1)ANA 2 – 2 MTL · MTL 38% → 57% +19MTL 38% → 57%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 59%
- ML ANA +135 / MTL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- MTL: Elo 56.2%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- MTL -143
- ANA +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.0 – 3.5 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +6 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +43 Elo | MTL 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 59.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.631st of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.929th of 32 |
| 30th of 3245.2% | Shot share | 44.8%31st of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 88.7%29th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 10th of 325–5 | Road vs home | 7–819th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–8 | 14–13 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 14–7 | 13–13 |
| Overs–unders | 8–17 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 0–2 MTL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.