Anaheim Ducks at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Jackson LaCombeGoals1
- Ryan StromeAssists2
- Jackson LaCombePoints2
Maple Leafs- Max PaciorettyGoals2
- John TavaresAssists2
- Max PaciorettyPoints3
Scoring summary
- P213:59Jackson LaCombe Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (9), Troy Terry (14)2–3
- P212:54Max Pacioretty Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Conor Timmins (5), John Tavares (13)1–3
- P115:56Frank Vatrano Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (3), Ryan Strome (8)1–2
- P114:17William Nylander Goal (18) Batted, assists: Max Pacioretty (5), Morgan Rielly (12)0–2
- P16:57Max Pacioretty Goal (3) Backhand, assists: John Tavares (12), Jake McCabe (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:57Max Pacioretty Goal (3) Backhand, assists: John Tavares (12), Jake McCabe (6)ANA 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 77% → 87% +10TOR 77% → 87%+10 pts
- P114:17William Nylander Goal (18) Batted, assists: Max Pacioretty (5), Morgan Rielly (12)ANA 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 86% → 94% +7TOR 86% → 94%+7 pts
- P115:56Frank Vatrano Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (3), Ryan Strome (8)ANA 1 – 2 TOR · ANA 6% → 14% +7ANA 6% → 14%+7 pts
- P212:54Max Pacioretty Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Conor Timmins (5), John Tavares (13)ANA 1 – 3 TOR · TOR 86% → 95% +9TOR 86% → 95%+9 pts
- P213:59Jackson LaCombe Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (9), Troy Terry (14)ANA 2 – 3 TOR · ANA 5% → 14% +9ANA 5% → 14%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 78%
- ML ANA +340 / TOR -450
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 72.6%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -360
- ANA +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 1.9 – 3.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1425 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | ANA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +12 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +169 Elo | TOR 72.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 78.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 77.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.4 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.411th of 32 |
| 29th of 3245.7% | Shot share | 49.8%17th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 92.0%3rd of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 325–7 | Road vs home | 12–46th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–9 | 16–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 10–11 |
| Underdog | 15–8 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–19 | 11–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 0–2 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.