Anaheim Ducks at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Cutter GauthierGoals1
- Mason McTavishAssists1
- Cutter GauthierPoints1
Senators- Drake BathersonGoals3
- Tim StutzleAssists2
- Drake BathersonPoints4
Scoring summary
- P312:42Cutter Gauthier Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Mason McTavish (9)1–5
- P38:58Brady Tkachuk Goal (14) Batted, assists: Drake Batherson (20), Tim Stützle (26)0–5
- P210:30Drake Batherson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–4
- P118:25Drake Batherson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (17), Josh Norris (7)0–3
- P111:15Drake Batherson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (25), Jake Sanderson (14)0–2
- P12:55Noah Gregor Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Zack Ostapchuk (2), Nick Jensen (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:55Noah Gregor Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Zack Ostapchuk (2), Nick Jensen (10)ANA 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 68% → 80% +12OTT 68% → 80%+12 pts
- P111:15Drake Batherson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (25), Jake Sanderson (14)ANA 0 – 2 OTT · OTT 80% → 89% +10OTT 80% → 89%+10 pts
- P118:25Drake Batherson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (17), Josh Norris (7)ANA 0 – 3 OTT · OTT 90% → 96% +6OTT 90% → 96%+6 pts
- P210:30Drake Batherson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: noneANA 0 – 4 OTT · OTT 97% → >99% +2OTT 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P38:58Brady Tkachuk Goal (14) Batted, assists: Drake Batherson (20), Tim Stützle (26)ANA 0 – 5 OTT · OTT >99% → >99% +0OTT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 68%
- ML ANA +200 / OTT -240
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- OTT: Elo 63.9%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- OTT -212
- ANA +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.7 – 3.8 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1428 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +7 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +99 Elo | OTT 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 71.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 69.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.015th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.224th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 30th of 3245.6% | Shot share | 53.2%6th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 89.2%26th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 21st of 325–6 | Road vs home | 8–713th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–8 | 10–17 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 3–13 |
| Underdog | 15–7 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–18 | 13–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 3–0 OTT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.