Chicago Blackhawks at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Jason DickinsonGoals1
- Nick FolignoAssists1
- Jason DickinsonPoints1
Devils- Dawson MercerGoals1
- Brett PesceAssists2
- Timo MeierPoints2
Scoring summary
- P312:34Timo Meier Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (9), Brett Pesce (3)1–4
- P312:16Nico Hischier Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (28)1–3
- P310:28Jack Hughes Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (2), Jesper Bratt (27)1–2
- P32:45Dawson Mercer Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (9), Timo Meier (12)1–1
- P213:31Jason Dickinson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (6), TJ Brodie (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P213:31Jason Dickinson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (6), TJ Brodie (6)CHI 1 – 0 NJ · CHI 32% → 54% +21CHI 32% → 54%+21 pts
- P32:45Dawson Mercer Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (9), Timo Meier (12)CHI 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 38% → 64% +27NJ 38% → 64%+27 pts
- P310:28Jack Hughes Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (2), Jesper Bratt (27)CHI 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 61% → 88% +27NJ 61% → 88%+27 pts
- P312:16Nico Hischier Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (28)CHI 1 – 3 NJ · NJ 90% → 99% +9NJ 90% → 99%+9 pts
- P312:34Timo Meier Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (9), Brett Pesce (3)CHI 1 – 4 NJ · NJ 99% → >99% +1NJ 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 76%
- ML CHI +290 / NJ -380
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- NJ: Elo 68.6%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- NJ -309
- CHI +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.0 – 3.5 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1412 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | +10 | CHI: Drew Commesso (no track record yet) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +136 Elo | NJ 68.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 69.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 69.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.75th of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.3% | Shot share | 53.6%3rd of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 90.4%12th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 27th of 325–12 | Road vs home | 7–922nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–15 | 15–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 12–16 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–19 | 12–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 0–2 NJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.