Chicago Blackhawks at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Tyler BertuzziGoals1
- Jason DickinsonAssists1
- Tyler BertuzziPoints1
Rangers- Will CuylleGoals1
- Sam CarrickAssists1
- Will CuyllePoints1
Scoring summary
- P26:16Taylor Hall Goal (6) Poke, assists: Connor Bedard (16), Jason Dickinson (5)2–1
- P119:17Will Cuylle Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Carrick (4)1–1
- P18:10Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (6)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:10Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (6)CHI 1 – 0 NYR · CHI 32% → 47% +15CHI 32% → 47%+15 pts
- P119:17Will Cuylle Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Carrick (4)CHI 1 – 1 NYR · NYR 49% → 66% +17NYR 49% → 66%+17 pts
- P26:16Taylor Hall Goal (6) Poke, assists: Connor Bedard (16), Jason Dickinson (5)CHI 2 – 1 NYR · CHI 35% → 54% +19CHI 35% → 54%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 69%
- ML CHI +215 / NYR -260
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- NYR: Elo 72.3%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- NYR -228
- CHI +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.7 – 3.8 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −15 | −7 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.37 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +166 Elo | NYR 72.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 70.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 70.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.4 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.016th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 28th of 3245.7% | Shot share | 49.0%23rd of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 91.0%6th of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 27th of 324–11 | Road vs home | 7–715th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–15 | 10–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 8–14 |
| Underdog | 11–12 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–18 | 13–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 0–2 NYR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.