Seattle Kraken at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Eeli TolvanenGoals1
- Eeli TolvanenAssists2
- Eeli TolvanenPoints3
Rangers- K'Andre MillerGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists2
- K'Andre MillerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:14Yanni Gourde Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (12), Jamie Oleksiak (4)7–5
- P314:57Alexis Lafrenière Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (9), Artemi Panarin (19)6–5
- P312:27K'Andre Miller Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (18), Adam Fox (22)6–4
- P311:13Shane Wright Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (5), Oliver Bjorkstrand (11)6–3
- P31:00Vince Dunn Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (9), Chandler Stephenson (17)5–3
- P219:24Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (12), Eeli Tolvanen (4)4–3
- P215:34Eeli Tolvanen Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (10), Shane Wright (4)3–3
- P214:06Brandon Tanev Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitchell Stephens (1), Tye Kartye (3)2–3
- P24:47Vincent Trocheck Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (21)1–3
- P22:50Filip Chytil Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (10), Will Cuylle (12)1–2
- P21:46Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (16), Matty Beniers (11)1–1
- P13:38Reilly Smith Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (4), Mika Zibanejad (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:46Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (16), Matty Beniers (11)SEA 1 – 1 NYR · SEA 27% → 44% +17SEA 27% → 44%+17 pts
- P22:50Filip Chytil Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (10), Will Cuylle (12)SEA 1 – 2 NYR · NYR 56% → 73% +17NYR 56% → 73%+17 pts
- P215:34Eeli Tolvanen Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (10), Shane Wright (4)SEA 3 – 3 NYR · SEA 24% → 45% +21SEA 24% → 45%+21 pts
- P219:24Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (12), Eeli Tolvanen (4)SEA 4 – 3 NYR · SEA 45% → 69% +24SEA 45% → 69%+24 pts
- P31:00Vince Dunn Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (9), Chandler Stephenson (17)SEA 5 – 3 NYR · SEA 70% → 88% +18SEA 70% → 88%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 58%
- ML SEA +130 / NYR -150
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.3 pts
- NYR: Elo 67.3%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- NYR -138
- SEA +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.5 – 3.0 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −16 | +7 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.41 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +126 Elo | NYR 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 63.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.212th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.312th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 48.5%25th of 32 |
| 17th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 91.5%4th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 20th of 326–8 | Road vs home | 7–614th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–13 | 10–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 8–13 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 12–16 | 12–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 0–3 NYR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.