Chicago Blackhawks at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Tyler BertuzziGoals2
- Connor BedardAssists2
- Connor BedardPoints3
Islanders- Simon HolmstromGoals1
- Jean-Gabriel PageauAssists3
- Simon HolmstromPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:50Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Alex Vlasic (12), Connor Bedard (18)4–5
- P318:50Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (7)3–5
- P311:04TJ Brodie Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (17), Nick Foligno (5)2–5
- P37:58Maxim Tsyplakov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (13), Noah Dobson (14)1–5
- P36:36Bo Horvat Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (10), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (10)1–4
- P35:39Noah Dobson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (9), Anders Lee (12)1–3
- P214:06Simon Holmstrom Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Pulock (10), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (9)1–2
- P26:59Dennis Cholowski Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (9), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (8)1–1
- P116:47Connor Bedard Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (6), Alex Vlasic (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:47Connor Bedard Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (6), Alex Vlasic (11)CHI 1 – 0 NYI · CHI 38% → 55% +17CHI 38% → 55%+17 pts
- P26:59Dennis Cholowski Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (9), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (8)CHI 1 – 1 NYI · NYI 41% → 60% +19NYI 41% → 60%+19 pts
- P214:06Simon Holmstrom Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Pulock (10), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (9)CHI 1 – 2 NYI · NYI 59% → 78% +19NYI 59% → 78%+19 pts
- P35:39Noah Dobson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (9), Anders Lee (12)CHI 1 – 3 NYI · NYI 82% → 95% +13NYI 82% → 95%+13 pts
- P36:36Bo Horvat Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (10), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (10)CHI 1 – 4 NYI · NYI 96% → >99% +4NYI 96% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 64%
- ML CHI +165 / NYI -200
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- NYI: Elo 64.3%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- NYI -177
- CHI +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.4 – 3.1 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1413 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +1 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +102 Elo | NYI 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 64.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.4 | Goals scored | 2.627th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.423rd of 32 |
| 28th of 3245.9% | Shot share | 49.6%19th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 90.6%9th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 27th of 325–11 | Road vs home | 5–925th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–15 | 13–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 2–13 |
| Underdog | 12–12 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–19 | 17–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–1 NYI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.