Columbus Blue Jackets at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Adam FantilliGoals1
- Kirill MarchenkoAssists2
- Kirill MarchenkoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:51
Brayden Point Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (33), Jake Guentzel (15)3–5 - P314:11Cole Sillinger Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (6), Kirill Marchenko (20)3–4
- P38:05Adam Fantilli Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (19)2–4
- P37:23Mikael Pyyhtia Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (5)1–4
- P214:18Mitchell Chaffee Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Paul (10), Brandon Hagel (21)0–4
- P27:36Jake Guentzel Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Paul (9)0–3
- P21:28Nick Paul Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P13:21Luke Glendening Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Nick Perbix (6), Emil Lilleberg (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:21Luke Glendening Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Nick Perbix (6), Emil Lilleberg (8)CBJ 0 – 1 TB · TB 70% → 82% +12TB 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P21:28Nick Paul Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCBJ 0 – 2 TB · TB 81% → 91% +10TB 81% → 91%+10 pts
- P27:36Jake Guentzel Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Paul (9)CBJ 0 – 3 TB · TB 92% → 97% +5TB 92% → 97%+5 pts
- P38:05Adam Fantilli Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (19)CBJ 2 – 4 TB · CBJ <1% → 3% +3CBJ <1% → 3%+3 pts
- P314:11Cole Sillinger Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (6), Kirill Marchenko (20)CBJ 3 – 4 TB · CBJ <1% → 9% +8CBJ <1% → 9%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- TB 70%
- ML CBJ +225 / TB -275
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- TB: Elo 68.3%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -238
- CBJ +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.6 – 3.9 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +7 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +133 Elo | TB 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 68.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 68.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 4.01st of 32 |
| 30th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +1.13rd of 32 |
| 9th of 3252.0% | Shot share | 51.0%12th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.9% | Save percentage | 90.2%15th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 30th of 324–12 | Road vs home | 8–58th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–15 | 14–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 9–9 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 20–11 | 13–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 2–2 TB in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.