Tampa Bay Lightning at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Declan CarlileGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints2
Kraken- Brandon MontourGoals1
- Eeli TolvanenAssists1
- Brandon MontourPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:38Declan Carlile Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Glendening (2), Michael Eyssimont (2)5–1
- P316:08Brandon Hagel Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (32)4–1
- P34:03Jake Guentzel Goal (17) Batted, assists: Brayden Point (16), Nikita Kucherov (31)3–1
- P113:21Brayden Point Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (8), Jake Guentzel (14)2–1
- P18:16Brandon Hagel Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Nick Perbix (5)1–1
- P14:24Brandon Montour Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (7), Shane Wright (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:24Brandon Montour Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (7), Shane Wright (7)TB 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 46% → 61% +15SEA 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P18:16Brandon Hagel Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Nick Perbix (5)TB 1 – 1 SEA · TB 38% → 54% +16TB 38% → 54%+16 pts
- P113:21Brayden Point Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (8), Jake Guentzel (14)TB 2 – 1 SEA · TB 54% → 69% +16TB 54% → 69%+16 pts
- P34:03Jake Guentzel Goal (17) Batted, assists: Brayden Point (16), Nikita Kucherov (31)TB 3 – 1 SEA · TB 78% → 93% +15TB 78% → 93%+15 pts
- P316:08Brandon Hagel Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (32)TB 4 – 1 SEA · TB >99% → >99% +0TB >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TB 54%
- ML TB -130 / SEA +110
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- TB: Elo 52.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -119
- SEA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.4 – 3.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −19 | −13 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.47 more goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +15 Elo | TB 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 324.0 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+1.0 | Margin | +0.115th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 48.7%23rd of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 90.4%13th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 11th of 327–7 | Road vs home | 8–816th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–14 | 18–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 14–7 |
| Overs–unders | 13–14 | 14–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 1–1 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.