Tampa Bay Lightning at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists5
- Nikita KucherovPoints6
Flames- Jonathan HuberdeauGoals1
- Jonathan HuberdeauAssists1
- Jonathan HuberdeauPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:21Jake Guentzel Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Brayden Point (15), Nikita Kucherov (30)8–3
- P313:24Conor Geekie Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (20), Anthony Cirelli (15)7–3
- P311:34Jake Guentzel Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Nikita Kucherov (29), Brayden Point (14)6–3
- P30:43Brandon Hagel Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (14)5–3
- P214:50Connor Zary Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (7)4–3
- P212:14Nazem Kadri Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (10), Kevin Bahl (9)4–2
- P211:05Anthony Cirelli Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (13), Nikita Kucherov (28)4–1
- P27:55Brayden Point Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (27), Darren Raddysh (7)3–1
- P26:25Jake Guentzel Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: J.J. Moser (8), Nikita Kucherov (26)2–1
- P118:40Nikita Kucherov Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P14:42Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:42Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTB 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 41% → 56% +15CGY 41% → 56%+15 pts
- P118:40Nikita Kucherov Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTB 1 – 1 CGY · TB 40% → 58% +17TB 40% → 58%+17 pts
- P26:25Jake Guentzel Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: J.J. Moser (8), Nikita Kucherov (26)TB 2 – 1 CGY · TB 57% → 75% +18TB 57% → 75%+18 pts
- P214:50Connor Zary Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (7)TB 4 – 3 CGY · CGY 10% → 24% +14CGY 10% → 24%+14 pts
- P30:43Brandon Hagel Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (14)TB 5 – 3 CGY · TB 78% → 92% +14TB 78% → 92%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 59%
- ML TB -160 / CGY +135
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- TB: Elo 54.1%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -145
- CGY +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.5 – 3.0 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −4 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +29 Elo | TB 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.8 | Goals scored | 2.725th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 50.3%13th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 90.4%13th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 17th of 326–7 | Road vs home | 10–46th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–14 | 15–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 12–14 | 12–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 0–2 CGY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.