Tampa Bay Lightning at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints3
Canucks- Quinn HughesGoals1
- Tyler MyersAssists1
- Quinn HughesPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:42Brayden Point Goal (18) Backhand, assists: none4–2
- P316:04Jake Guentzel Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Nikita Kucherov (24), Brayden Point (11)3–2
- P34:52Kiefer Sherwood Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Myers (5), Aatu Raty (2)2–2
- P26:29Brayden Point Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (23), Victor Hedman (21)2–1
- P24:40Nikita Kucherov Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (9), Brayden Point (10)1–1
- P116:08Quinn Hughes Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Pius Suter (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:08Quinn Hughes Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Pius Suter (6)TB 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 47% → 64% +17VAN 47% → 64%+17 pts
- P24:40Nikita Kucherov Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (9), Brayden Point (10)TB 1 – 1 VAN · TB 34% → 52% +19TB 34% → 52%+19 pts
- P26:29Brayden Point Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (23), Victor Hedman (21)TB 2 – 1 VAN · TB 52% → 71% +18TB 52% → 71%+18 pts
- P34:52Kiefer Sherwood Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Myers (5), Aatu Raty (2)TB 2 – 2 VAN · VAN 22% → 48% +26VAN 22% → 48%+26 pts
- P316:04Jake Guentzel Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Nikita Kucherov (24), Brayden Point (11)TB 3 – 2 VAN · TB 51% → 93% +42TB 51% → 93%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TB 53%
- ML TB -125 / VAN +105
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 43%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- TB: Elo 45.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -114
- VAN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.3 – 3.2 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +2 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +30 Elo | VAN 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 56.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.9 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.8 | Margin | +0.213th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 48.6%25th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 89.4%24th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 20th of 325–6 | Road vs home | 4–830th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–14 | 12–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–9 | 7–10 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 12–12 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 2–1 VAN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.