San Jose Sharks at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Alexander WennbergGoals1
- Jan RuttaAssists1
- Alexander WennbergPoints1
Lightning- Cam AtkinsonGoals1
- Ryan McDonaghAssists2
- Cam AtkinsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P36:01Nick Paul Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Brayden Point (9), J.J. Moser (7)1–8
- P30:14Alexander Wennberg Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (11), Jan Rutta (3)1–7
- P218:32Nick Perbix Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (8), Emil Lilleberg (7)0–7
- P24:16Anthony Cirelli Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Ryan McDonagh (8), Brayden Point (7)0–6
- P117:45Jake Guentzel Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Victor Hedman (20), Brayden Point (6)0–5
- P18:55Brandon Hagel Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Erik Cernak (7)0–4
- P18:32Brandon Hagel Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Jake Guentzel (13), Ryan McDonagh (7)0–3
- P17:29Conor Geekie Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Atkinson (2), Victor Hedman (19)0–2
- P11:26Cam Atkinson Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Conor Geekie (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:26Cam Atkinson Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Conor Geekie (4)SJ 0 – 1 TB · TB 70% → 81% +11TB 70% → 81%+11 pts
- P17:29Conor Geekie Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Atkinson (2), Victor Hedman (19)SJ 0 – 2 TB · TB 81% → 90% +9TB 81% → 90%+9 pts
- P18:32Brandon Hagel Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Jake Guentzel (13), Ryan McDonagh (7)SJ 0 – 3 TB · TB 90% → 95% +5TB 90% → 95%+5 pts
- P18:55Brandon Hagel Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Erik Cernak (7)SJ 0 – 4 TB · TB 95% → 98% +3TB 95% → 98%+3 pts
- P117:45Jake Guentzel Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Victor Hedman (20), Brayden Point (6)SJ 0 – 5 TB · TB 99% → >99% +1TB 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- TB 70%
- ML SJ +220 / TB -270
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- TB: Elo 70.9%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -234
- SJ +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.7 – 3.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +4 | SJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +155 Elo | TB 70.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 73.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 72.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 32 |
| 28th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.68th of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 49.9%15th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.9%18th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 27th of 324–11 | Road vs home | 7–510th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–9 | 9–14 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 19–9 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–15 | 11–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 0–2 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.