Calgary Flames at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Kevin RooneyGoals1
- Kevin RooneyAssists1
- Jonathan HuberdeauPoints2
Predators- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals2
- Steven StamkosAssists1
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints2
Scoring summary
- P218:41Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Matt Coronato (5), Connor Zary (9)4–3
- P213:49Brayden Pachal Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Pelletier (1), Kevin Rooney (1)3–3
- P27:41Jonathan Marchessault Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (10)2–3
- P22:27Kevin Rooney Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Walker Duehr (1)2–2
- P110:52Tommy Novak Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Jankowski (5), Luke Evangelista (9)1–2
- P110:22Nazem Kadri Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (9)1–1
- P17:45Jonathan Marchessault Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Steven Stamkos (7), Filip Forsberg (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:52Tommy Novak Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Jankowski (5), Luke Evangelista (9)CGY 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 61% → 75% +14NSH 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P22:27Kevin Rooney Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Walker Duehr (1)CGY 2 – 2 NSH · CGY 24% → 40% +16CGY 24% → 40%+16 pts
- P27:41Jonathan Marchessault Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (10)CGY 2 – 3 NSH · NSH 59% → 77% +18NSH 59% → 77%+18 pts
- P213:49Brayden Pachal Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Pelletier (1), Kevin Rooney (1)CGY 3 – 3 NSH · CGY 22% → 42% +19CGY 22% → 42%+19 pts
- P218:41Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Matt Coronato (5), Connor Zary (9)CGY 4 – 3 NSH · CGY 43% → 66% +24CGY 43% → 66%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 62%
- ML CGY +155 / NSH -185
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- NSH: Elo 56.2%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- NSH -166
- CGY +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.4 – 3.1 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | 0 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +43 Elo | NSH 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 61.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.232nd of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.121st of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.4 | Margin | −1.031st of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 49.7%18th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 90.6%9th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 31st of 323–11 | Road vs home | 5–825th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–14 | 12–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–17 | 8–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 3–1 NSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.