Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Connor ZaryGoals1
- Daniil MiromanovAssists1
- Jonathan HuberdeauPoints1
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals1
- Oskar BackAssists2
- Jason RobertsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:02Thomas Harley Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (15), Matt Duchene (17)2–6
- P313:02Thomas Harley Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Lundkvist (2), Oskar Bäck (6)2–5
- P312:01Sam Steel Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (10)2–4
- P35:13Roope Hintz Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Esa Lindell (8), Jason Robertson (11)2–3
- P216:08Connor Zary Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Daniil Miromanov (5), Andrei Kuzmenko (9)2–2
- P27:47Jason Robertson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Oskar Bäck (5), Ilya Lyubushkin (7)1–2
- P14:26Wyatt Johnston Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: none1–1
- P11:00Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:00Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (9)CGY 1 – 0 DAL · CGY 34% → 49% +14CGY 34% → 49%+14 pts
- P14:26Wyatt Johnston Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: noneCGY 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 50% → 65% +15DAL 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P27:47Jason Robertson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Oskar Bäck (5), Ilya Lyubushkin (7)CGY 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 62% → 79% +17DAL 62% → 79%+17 pts
- P216:08Connor Zary Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Daniil Miromanov (5), Andrei Kuzmenko (9)CGY 2 – 2 DAL · CGY 20% → 40% +20CGY 20% → 40%+20 pts
- P35:13Roope Hintz Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Esa Lindell (8), Jason Robertson (11)CGY 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 58% → 83% +25DAL 58% → 83%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 66%
- ML CGY +180 / DAL -215
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- DAL: Elo 64.4%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- DAL -191
- CGY +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.8 – 3.7 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +4 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +103 Elo | DAL 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 70.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 69.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.62nd of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.76th of 32 |
| 15th of 3249.9% | Shot share | 52.6%8th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 90.9%6th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 31st of 323–10 | Road vs home | 10–11st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–13 | 12–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 10–11 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–17 | 10–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 2–1 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.