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Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, Victory+, Scripps Sports

Away

Stars

16-10-0

2–3

at

Home

Golden Knights

18-7-3

DAL 58%VGK 42%

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T-Mobile Arena · ESPN+, Victory+, Scripps Sports

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.

VGK favored DAL favored5 scoring plays
P1P2P3VGK50%DAL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Golden Knights

Scoring summary

  • P317:26Mason Marchment Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (11), Miro Heiskanen (10)2–3
  • P216:48Nicolas Roy Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: none1–3
  • P215:40Jack Eichel Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (19)1–2
  • P26:39Mavrik Bourque Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Bäck (4), Colin Blackwell (4)1–1
  • P115:23Tomas Hertl Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (16), Shea Theodore (18)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P115:23Tomas Hertl Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (16), Shea Theodore (18)DAL 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 43% → 60% +17
  2. P26:39Mavrik Bourque Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Bäck (4), Colin Blackwell (4)DAL 1 – 1 VGK · DAL 37% → 56% +19
  3. P215:40Jack Eichel Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (19)DAL 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 45% → 67% +22
  4. P216:48Nicolas Roy Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: noneDAL 1 – 3 VGK · VGK 68% → 85% +17
  5. P317:26Mason Marchment Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (11), Miro Heiskanen (10)DAL 2 – 3 VGK · DAL <1% → 4% +4

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Stars 58%

LeanMiss
DAL 58%VGK 42%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
DAL 58%
ML DAL -150 / VGK +130
Pre-line forecast
DAL 54%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DAL 48%
Ratings vs. market
−9.6 pts
DAL: Elo 48.4%, market 58.0%
Fair odds
DAL -138
VGK +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
DAL 3.5 – 3.0 VGK
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDALVGKWhy
Team rating15561529Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+4+7DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsVGK +11 EloVGK 51.6%
Market-implied ratingsDAL 54.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDAL 53.6%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastDAL 58.0%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

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Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights compared, with each team's league rank
DALStatVGK
9th of 323.4Goals scored3.66th of 32
4th of 322.6Goals allowed3.013th of 32
7th of 32+0.8Margin+0.68th of 32
7th of 3252.3%Shot share51.3%10th of 32
6th of 3291.0%Save percentage90.0%16th of 32
5th of 326–4Last 106–45th of 32
12th of 326–6Road vs home10–33rd of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

StarsGolden Knights
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDALVGK
Puck line12–1315–12
Last 104–65–5
Favorite10–109–11
Underdog2–36–1
Overs–unders10–1516–11
Overs–unders, last 104–64–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DAL 4–6 VGK in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.