St. Louis Blues at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals1
- Robert ThomasAssists2
- Robert ThomasPoints3
Flames- MacKenzie WeegarGoals1
- MacKenzie WeegarAssists1
- MacKenzie WeegarPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:25Colton Parayko Goal (5) Poke, assists: Robert Thomas (11), Dylan Holloway (8)4–3
- P37:06MacKenzie Weegar Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (8)3–3
- P36:00Pavel Buchnevich Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (10), Philip Broberg (10)3–2
- P25:23Matt Coronato Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Zary (8), MacKenzie Weegar (12)2–2
- P115:04Jakob Pelletier Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Lomberg (3), Daniil Miromanov (4)2–1
- P114:49Robert Thomas Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (5), Ryan Suter (5)2–0
- P112:49Zack Bolduc Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (10), Philip Broberg (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:49Zack Bolduc Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (10), Philip Broberg (9)STL 1 – 0 CGY · STL 47% → 63% +16STL 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P25:23Matt Coronato Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Zary (8), MacKenzie Weegar (12)STL 2 – 2 CGY · CGY 34% → 52% +19CGY 34% → 52%+19 pts
- P36:00Pavel Buchnevich Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (10), Philip Broberg (10)STL 3 – 2 CGY · STL 48% → 76% +28STL 48% → 76%+28 pts
- P37:06MacKenzie Weegar Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (8)STL 3 – 3 CGY · CGY 23% → 52% +29CGY 23% → 52%+29 pts
- OT2:25Colton Parayko Goal (5) Poke, assists: Robert Thomas (11), Dylan Holloway (8)STL 4 – 3 CGY · STL 49% → 96% +47STL 49% → 96%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 53%
- ML STL +105 / CGY -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- CGY: Elo 52.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CGY -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.7 – 2.8 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −4 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +19 Elo | CGY 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.725th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 26th of 3248.0% | Shot share | 49.5%21st of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 91.1%6th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 11th of 327–7 | Road vs home | 10–34th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–11 | 14–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 15–7 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders | 11–15 | 9–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–0 CGY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.