Tampa Bay Lightning at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nikita KucherovAssists1
- Nikita KucherovPoints1
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists1
- Leon DraisaitlPoints2
Scoring summary
- P211:58Leon Draisaitl Goal (20) , assists: none1–2
- P210:02Jake Guentzel Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (25), Brayden Point (12)1–1
- P117:31Connor McDavid Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (18), Brett Kulak (5)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:31Connor McDavid Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (18), Brett Kulak (5)TB 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 57% → 73% +16EDM 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P210:02Jake Guentzel Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (25), Brayden Point (12)TB 1 – 1 EDM · TB 25% → 44% +19TB 25% → 44%+19 pts
- P211:58Leon Draisaitl Goal (20) , assists: noneTB 1 – 2 EDM · EDM 56% → 75% +19EDM 56% → 75%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 59%
- ML TB +135 / EDM -155
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- EDM: Elo 56.5%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- EDM -143
- TB +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.5 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | 0 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +45 Elo | EDM 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 62.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.9 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.9 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 55.8%2nd of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 89.2%25th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–6 | Road vs home | 7–715th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–14 | 10–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 7–16 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 12–13 | 11–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 2–0 EDM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.