St. Louis Blues at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Dylan HollowayGoals1
- Robert ThomasAssists1
- Dylan HollowayPoints1
Oilers- Troy StecherGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists2
- Leon DraisaitlPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:18Troy Stecher Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (6)2–4
- P313:09Jake Neighbours Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Kyrou (14), Pavel Buchnevich (10)2–3
- P35:02Dylan Holloway Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (12), Colton Parayko (9)1–3
- P214:37Zach Hyman Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (24), Leon Draisaitl (17)0–3
- P25:19Connor McDavid Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: none0–2
- P112:25Corey Perry Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Darnell Nurse (8), Leon Draisaitl (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:25Corey Perry Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Darnell Nurse (8), Leon Draisaitl (16)STL 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 68% → 81% +13EDM 68% → 81%+13 pts
- P25:19Connor McDavid Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: noneSTL 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 81% → 91% +10EDM 81% → 91%+10 pts
- P214:37Zach Hyman Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (24), Leon Draisaitl (17)STL 0 – 3 EDM · EDM 93% → 98% +5EDM 93% → 98%+5 pts
- P313:09Jake Neighbours Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Kyrou (14), Pavel Buchnevich (10)STL 2 – 3 EDM · STL <1% → 10% +9STL <1% → 10%+9 pts
- P314:18Troy Stecher Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (6)STL 2 – 4 EDM · EDM 91% → >99% +8EDM 91% → >99%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 70%
- ML STL +225 / EDM -275
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- EDM: Elo 61.9%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- EDM -238
- STL +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.6 – 3.9 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −1 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +85 Elo | EDM 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 69.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 68.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.4 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 56.3%1st of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.0%27th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 10th of 328–7 | Road vs home | 6–720th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–11 | 9–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 6–16 |
| Underdog | 16–7 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 12–15 | 11–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–1 EDM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.