Boston Bruins at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins
Kraken- Jared McCannGoals1
- Shane WrightAssists2
- Jared McCannPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:06Jared McCann Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Tanev (7)1–5
- P39:16Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Wright (6), Eeli Tolvanen (6)1–4
- P33:07Vince Dunn Goal (4) Batted, assists: Jared McCann (15), Andre Burakovsky (10)1–3
- P210:28Brad Marchand Goal (12) Backhand, assists: none1–2
- P15:14Jaden Schwartz Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Shane Wright (5)0–2
- P10:24Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Matty Beniers (13), Chandler Stephenson (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:24Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Matty Beniers (13), Chandler Stephenson (18)BOS 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 48% → 62% +14SEA 48% → 62%+14 pts
- P15:14Jaden Schwartz Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Shane Wright (5)BOS 0 – 2 SEA · SEA 63% → 76% +13SEA 63% → 76%+13 pts
- P210:28Brad Marchand Goal (12) Backhand, assists: noneBOS 1 – 2 SEA · BOS 16% → 31% +16BOS 16% → 31%+16 pts
- P33:07Vince Dunn Goal (4) Batted, assists: Jared McCann (15), Andre Burakovsky (10)BOS 1 – 3 SEA · SEA 75% → 91% +17SEA 75% → 91%+17 pts
- P39:16Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Wright (6), Eeli Tolvanen (6)BOS 1 – 4 SEA · SEA 96% → >99% +4SEA 96% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML BOS -120 / SEA +100
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 51.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- SEA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.8 – 2.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −18 | BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.44 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +10 Elo | BOS 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.6 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 49.1%22nd of 32 |
| 26th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 90.1%15th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 18th of 326–7 | Road vs home | 7–818th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–22 | 17–13 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–16 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 3–6 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders | 14–16 | 13–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–2 SEA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.