Boston Bruins at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- David PastrnakPoints1
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals2
- Neal PionkAssists2
- Mark ScheifelePoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:26Nikita Chibrikov Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (12)1–8
- P316:16Mason Appleton Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Haydn Fleury (6), Adam Lowry (11)1–7
- P37:19Alex Iafallo Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Neal Pionk (20), Nikita Chibrikov (1)1–6
- P35:33Gabriel Vilardi Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (20)1–5
- P31:15Kyle Connor Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (18)1–4
- P29:13David Pastrnak Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (6), Brad Marchand (11)1–3
- P27:02Mark Scheifele Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (25)0–3
- P118:01Mark Scheifele Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (19), Gabriel Vilardi (10)0–2
- P112:09Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (7), Neal Pionk (19)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:09Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (7), Neal Pionk (19)BOS 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 55% → 70% +15WPG 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P118:01Mark Scheifele Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (19), Gabriel Vilardi (10)BOS 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 71% → 84% +13WPG 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P27:02Mark Scheifele Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (25)BOS 0 – 3 WPG · WPG 86% → 94% +8WPG 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P29:13David Pastrnak Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (6), Brad Marchand (11)BOS 1 – 3 WPG · BOS 5% → 13% +8BOS 5% → 13%+8 pts
- P31:15Kyle Connor Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (18)BOS 1 – 4 WPG · WPG 92% → 98% +6WPG 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 55%
- ML BOS +115 / WPG -135
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.1 pts
- WPG: Elo 61.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- WPG -124
- BOS +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.6 – 2.9 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +9 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +80 Elo | WPG 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 62.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.65th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.65th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.4 | Margin | +1.02nd of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 49.7%17th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 91.9%3rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 10th of 326–6 | Road vs home | 9–35th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–21 | 15–14 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–16 | 11–9 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–16 | 12–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–1 WPG in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.