Florida Panthers at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers
Kraken- Chandler StephensonGoals1
- Jared McCannAssists1
- Chandler StephensonPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Sam Reinhart Goal Wrist Shot2–0
- SO0:00Aleksander Barkov Goal Backhand2–0
- P218:59Aleksander Barkov Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (20)1–1
- P115:39Chandler Stephenson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (9), Jared McCann (14)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:39Chandler Stephenson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (9), Jared McCann (14)FLA 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 38% → 55% +17SEA 38% → 55%+17 pts
- P218:59Aleksander Barkov Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (20)FLA 1 – 1 SEA · FLA 34% → 58% +24FLA 34% → 58%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 64%
- ML FLA -195 / SEA +165
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- FLA: Elo 56.7%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- FLA -175
- SEA +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.1 – 2.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +8 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +47 Elo | FLA 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.8 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.016th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.5 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.9% | Shot share | 49.5%20th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 89.8%20th of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 8th of 327–5 | Road vs home | 7–716th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–13 | 16–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–12 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 18–10 | 13–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 1–1 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.