San Jose Sharks at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Tyler ToffoliGoals1
- Tyler ToffoliPoints1
Panthers- Tomas NosekAssists1
- Carter VerhaeghePoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:35Tyler Toffoli Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Mikael Granlund (20), Jake Walman (16)1–3
- P213:17Aleksander Barkov Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (19), Carter Verhaeghe (15)0–3
- P210:05Matthew Tkachuk Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Tomas Nosek (3)0–2
- P10:23Matthew Tkachuk Goal (9) Batted, assists: Sam Bennett (13)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:23Matthew Tkachuk Goal (9) Batted, assists: Sam Bennett (13)SJ 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 76% → 86% +10FLA 76% → 86%+10 pts
- P210:05Matthew Tkachuk Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Tomas Nosek (3)SJ 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 85% → 94% +9FLA 85% → 94%+9 pts
- P213:17Aleksander Barkov Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (19), Carter Verhaeghe (15)SJ 0 – 3 FLA · FLA 94% → 98% +4FLA 94% → 98%+4 pts
- P318:35Tyler Toffoli Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Mikael Granlund (20), Jake Walman (16)SJ 1 – 3 FLA · SJ <1% → <1% +0SJ <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 76%
- ML SJ +300 / FLA -400
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- FLA: Elo 75.4%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- FLA -320
- SJ +320 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.4 – 4.1 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1406 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +3 | SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +194 Elo | FLA 75.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 77.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 77.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 76.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.83rd of 32 |
| 29th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.8 | Margin | +0.59th of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.2% | Shot share | 52.3%8th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 89.0%24th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 28th of 324–12 | Road vs home | 7–612th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–10 | 14–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 9–12 |
| Underdog | 19–10 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 14–15 | 18–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 0–2 FLA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.